The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF), established under the UN Convention on Biological Diversity, sets global goals to address ecosystem loss, such as enhancing ecosystem resilience by 2050. While the GBF outlines aspirations, countries and local communities are responsible for implementing policies and actions. The IUCN Red List of Ecosystems (RLE), which assesses ecosystems’ risk of collapse, is a key tool for monitoring progress toward these goals, such as restoring 30% of degraded ecosystems by 2030. The RLE can guide both national and local management, as demonstrated in Egypt’s Burullus Protected Area and Kenya’s coral reefs.

Kenyan coral reefs contribute significantly to job creation, food security and coastal protection in the region. They were assessed in this study due to declines in their fish populations, a phenomenon that qualifies them as a vulnerable ecoregion. A 50-year analysis revealed a general trend of ecological degradation across four key components—hard corals, macroalgae, parrotfish, and groupers—resulting in an Endangered risk status for Kenya’s coral reefs. Over half of the monitored sites saw parrotfish and grouper populations drop by more than 50%, while coral cover decreased by at least 30%. Despite this, some sites maintained healthier ecosystems, with management measures like no-take zones showing positive effects on fish populations. These results guided recommendations for protection under GBF Targets 2 and 3, identifying sites for restoration and conservation.

The study also underscored the importance of site-specific factors in ecosystem degradation and recovery. Areas with healthier coral conditions and higher resistance to disturbances were prioritized for protection to support Targets 1 and 8 related to ecosystem resilience. Degraded sites that showed some recovery potential were recommended for restoration efforts, such as coral gardening. Management strategies, like effective fisheries regulations and pollution control, were suggested to enhance local ecosystem conditions and contribute to GBF goals like sustainable harvesting (Target 5) and pollution reduction (Target 7).